ASSESSMENT OF FARMERS PERCEPTION ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND ITS IMPACT ON CROP PRODUCTION PLANNING IN OGBOMOSHO AND ITS ENVIRONS, OYO STATE NIGERIA
BY
IMORU, Ahmed Abimbola
(2011/1/38130BG)
PROJECT SUBMITTED TO
DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY
SCHOOL OF PHYSICAL SCIENCES (SPS)
FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, MINNA, NIGERIA
IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF BACHELOR OF TECHNOLOGY (B.Tech) IN GEOGRAPHY (METEOROLOGY)
SEPTEMBER, 2016
DECLARATION
I hereby declare that this project titled: “Assessment of Farmers Perception on Climate Variability And Its Impact On Crop Production Planning In Ogbomosho And Its Environs, Oyo State Nigeria’’ is a collection of my original research work and has not been presented for any qualification anywhere. Information from other source (published or unpublished) has been duly acknowledged and referenced.
IMORU Ahmed Abimbola _____________________
2011/1/38130BG Signature & Date
Federal University of Technology
Minna, Nigeria
CERTIFICATION
This project research work titled “Assessment of Farmers Perception on Climate Variability And Its Impact On Crop Production Planning In Ogbomosho And Its Environs, Oyo State Nigeria’’ by IMORU AHMED ABIMBOLA with matriculation number (2011/1/38130BG) meets the regulation governing the award of the degree of Bachelor of Technology (B.Tech) of Federal University of Technology, Minna and it is approved for its contribution to the scientific knowledge and literal presentation.
Dr. T. I. Yahaya _________________________
Supervisor Signature & Date
Dr. (Mrs) A. Abdulkadir _________________________
Head of Department Signature & Date
Prof. A. S. Abubakar _________________________
Dean School of Science Signature & Date
DEDICATION
This research work is dedicated to God Almighty, the most gracious the most merciful.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
My utmost gratitude goes to Almighty God for His provision, protection and guidance over my life. I thank Him for the accomplishment of this work because He is my source of wisdom and strength.
My sincere gratitude also goes to my project supervisor in the person of Dr T I YAHAYA who took his time even when it was not convenient to put me through this work. I also want to say a big thank you the H.O.D Dr (Mrs.) Aishatu Abdulkadir and to all my lecturers that at one point or the other impacted wisdom and knowledge into me and that has made me able to succeed in this research work. God bless you all.
My profound gratitude goes to my parents Mr & Mrs D Imoru for their unconditional care, financial commitment, prayers and words of encouragement and their immeasurable love. May almighty God continue to bless you, I also wish to acknowledge the support of my brothers and sisters for their financial supports. Love you all.
I also appreciate my dearest big sister Aunty Bola for their time, love and encouragement and financial supports may God bless you
Also to my friends Sir Jerry, Solomon, Bello, Frayo Solomon, Eassy Lukman, Elizabeth Nofisat, Nimat, omowumi, Hafeez, Abdul, Abdullateef, Abdfatah for their contribution to my life. Thank you all, God bless.
ABSTRACT
Climate variability is a threat to agriculture and non-agricultural socio-economic development; agricultural production activities are generally more vulnerable to climate variability than other sectors. This study is to examine farmers perception on impact of climate variability and food production planning in Ogbomosho Local Government Area of Oyo State. It examine the variation in some climatic indicators such as rainfall and temperature in the study area between 1995-2015), it analyze the relationship between indicators on crop production planning in the study area and access the farmers perception on indicators of climate variability and crop production planning. Qualitative and quantitative techniques were used, climate variability data of 1995 to 2015 was acquired, Structural questionnaire was also used to elicit farmers perception of climate variability in the area. The findings shows that trend of temperature over the years in Ogbomosho reveals that the temperature from 2008 was constantly increasing except for the fall in 2004 and 2005, but they never went below 32oC in 2004. The year 2013 experienced the highest temperature of 35oC. The relationship between temperature and crop production in Ogbomosho using the Pearson correlation technique where crop production is dependent variables and temperature, the independent variable. The mean value of crop production against the numbers of hectare of land cultivated and the mean value of temperature were used to determine their relationship. It also revealed that 31.1% indicated delayed rainfall, 24.7% indicated higher temperature 11.7% indicated unusual heavy rainfall, 9.4% indicated fast water evaporation and undefined season while 5.0%, 4.4% and 4.2% indicated more longer days than night, flood with serious consequence and late fruiting of tree crops respectively as the determinant of climate change in their environment. The study concluded that the relationship between climatic elements and crop production in Ogbomosho is positively significant. This means that rainfall and temperature influence crop planning but other environmental factor such as soil fertility, type, and temperature technology etc. should also be put into consideration. The study thereby recommend that crop production should be regressed on other environmental factors such as soil fertility and longer period of data could be collected for better analysis
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Title Page i
Declaration ii
Certification iii
Dedication iv
Acknowledgments v
Abstract vi
Table of Content vii
List of Tables x
List of Figures xi
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background of the Study 1
1.2 Statement of the problem 3
1.3 Aim and Objectives 5
1.4 Research Questions 6
1.5 Scope of the Study 6
1.6 Justification of the Study 6
1.7 Study Area 8
1.7.1 Climate of the study area 10
1.7.2 Vegetation 11
1.7.3 Soil 11
1.7.4 Topography 11
CHAPTER TWO
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW 12
2.1 Crop Production 12
Page
2.2 Conceptual Framework on Climate Variability 15
2.3 Impacts of Climate Variability on Agricultural Production 16
2.4 Relationship Between Climate Variability and Agriculture 18
2.5 Variability in Rainfall and Temperature 20
2.6 Implications of Variability in Rainfall on Crop Yields 22
2.7 Climate Variability and Trends in Agricultural Planning 23
2.8 Gaps in Literature Review 24
CHAPTER THREE
3.0 MATERIALS AND METHODS 25
3.1 Research Design 25
3.2 Type and Sources of Data 25
3.3 Methods of Data Collection 26
3.3.1 Weather Data 26
3.4 Sample Size 26
3.5 Method of Data Analysis 27
CHAPTER FOUR
4.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 29
4.1 Examine the variation in some climatic indicators in the study area 29
4.2 The relationship between indicators on crop production planning in the study area 31
4.3 Farmers perception on indicators of climate variability and production planning 33
4.4 Perceived Adaptation strategies to mitigate impact of climate variability 36
CHAPTER FIVE
5.0 SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 39
5.1 Summary 39
5.2 Conclusion 39
Page
5.3 Recommendation 40
REERENCE 42
APPENDICES 44
Table LIST OF TABLES Page
4.1: Summary of the analysis 33
4.2: Socio – economic characteristics of the respondents 34
4.3: Farmer’s perception of climate variability 35
4.4: Impacts of climate variability on crop production 36
4.5: Adaptation strategies to climate variability 37
4.6: Regression analysis on perception of climate variability & adaption strategies 38
Figure LIST OF FIGURES Page
1.1: Location of Ogbomosho in Nigeria 9
1.2: Map of Oyo state showing Ogbomosho 10
2.1: Conceptual framework showing steps involved in planned agricultural and climate variability 16
4.1: Yearly minimum and maximum temperature in Ogbomosho 29
4.2: Rainfall pattern in Ogbomosho 30
4.3: Line graph showing the relationship between rainfall and crop production 31
4.4: Line graph showing the relationship between temperature and crop production 32
